Most Weather Forecasts are in good agreement that a major winter storm will develop across the High Plains and Midwest by Sunday night. Heavy snowfall, Sleet, and Freezing rain are all a possibility. Weather Synopsis:
A Shortwave trough dropping down across the inter-mountain west Sunday will promote surface low formation on the leeward side of the Rockies Sunday afternoon. Some diverging winds start to impact and deepen the low some Sunday night while simultaneously detaching the low from the lee side of the Rockies. By Monday the low begins to deepen some within a strong 500mb jet and some boundary heating. With this setup, Dewpoints could rise into the mid 50s to the low 60's across the deep south. Now there's enough CAPE and Mid-level winds to insurance a Marginal Severe but with this rather weak boundary heating at the 850 mb level and moderate CINH of -500 to -950 J/kg. This will make it very hard to break the cap. And a General risk for Thunderstorms in this area looks very likely.
Heavy Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain:
5 to 11 inches of snow is looking more likely across Central and Northern Missouri stretching across the Great lake where 5 to 8 inches looks like a possibility. 0.05 to 0.25 inches of ice looks possible due to the fact that cold air damming may take place, where cold air slides under the warm air so there's warm air aloft near the warm front boundary. More details in the Video.
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